Lately, my girlfriend has been watching a lot of the NBC show “Medium.”
In the series, Patricia Arquette plays a psychic who uses her ability to communicate with ghosts and see the future to solve crimes. The visions are vague, however, and the entire case isn’t revealed until the end. But my girlfriend always figures out what’s going on before the second commercial break. Always.
“Why do you watch this if you know what’s going to happen?” I ask her.
“Because I know what’s going to happen,” she replies.
Knowing what will happen is not a quality I look for in TV or movies.
That’s probably why I like sports so much. Sports are, if nothing else, the most unpredictable among all television broadcasts.
Fans (myself included) like to think we know what’s going to happen, but we know we don’t.
This goes for gamblers, too. On April 14, in reference to this year’s NBA playoffs, the Oddjack Online Gambling Guide said, “The Celtics and Magic won’t have any problems eliminating the Bulls and 76ers, respectively” (The Celtics lost their first game against the Bulls and won their second on a last-second, game-winning shot, while the Magic blew an 18-point lead in their first game against the 76ers and went on to lose).
For the six or so people who have been following this column, you know I consider “expert” advice to be the epitome of useless, as that last factoid illustrates. Once again, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.
And, in light of my frustration with the self-proclaimed experts, this time of year is always a little difficult for me.
Yes, it’s time for the NFL Draft. More than any other event in the whole wide world of sports, the draft draws the most speculation and conjecture among sporting analysts.
Perhaps the most irritating part of this process is that they’re always wrong. Always.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper stands alone as the most inaccurate, erroneous sports forecaster to date, with colleague Todd McShay hot on his heels. Every year, Kiper and McShay compile mock drafts, which are basically compilations of guesswork as to which players will go to what teams at what pick (If you’re thinking, “Wow, what a colossal waste of time,” then congratulations, you have at least enough brainpower to operate a fork).
Yes, mock drafts are among the biggest time-wasting activities in the history of man, as well as the most inaccurate. Why then, is there so much coverage devoted to it?
The obvious answer is that football, the most popular sport in the U.S., also has the shortest season of all major sports. Sports reporters must then fill the dead space with as much football nonsense and jargon as possible.
Luckily, a lot of NFL players get arrested in the offseason, but barring that, the draft is the cash cow for sports reporters.
The next obvious question is: who cares? Kiper, McShay and every draft analyst are, once again, wrong every year.
And everyone knows it.
So, the logical conclusion would be that no one puts any stock in what they say.
Let this be a lesson that logic doesn’t necessarily solve everything.
As I wrote this column, my friend Josh, an avid Tennessee Titans fan, sent me a text message excitedly stating that the experts said Tennessee would pick Ohio State running back Chris Wells in the first round.
Last night, my friends debated about whether or not the Detroit Lions would take Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford with the first overall pick (During Wednesday’s broadcast of “Sportscenter,” McShay said, “There is a 1 percent chance the Lions won’t take Stafford.”).
I’m starting to feel like I’m the only one who sees the stupidity in all of this.
“A friend of mine obsesses about the draft. He watches it 24/7, has papers with all the statistics and follows it religiously,” said Tim Bull, owner of the local office-cleaning company Jani-King. “I think it’s nuts, personally.”
Whew. At least I’m not alone out there.
For those of you who still have faith in Kiper and associates, despite the overwhelming evidence that says you shouldn’t, here are a few of my favorite recent moments in draft predictions:
“Since we know that the Texans will definitely take Reggie Bush with the No. 1 pick, we’ll just concentrate on the lower picks,” Kiper said on April 22, 2006.
The Texans actually picked Mario Williams, while Bush went to the Saints at No. 2.
“If the Raiders take either (JaMarcus) Russell or (Brady) Quinn at No. 1, then the Dolphins will grab the other at No. 7,” Kiper said on April 17, 2007.
The Raiders took Russell with the first pick, but Quinn lasted all the way to the 22-spot. The Dolphins instead chose Ted Ginn, Jr., who Kiper had picked to go “in the late first round or early second round.”
And, as recently as last year .
“New coach Tony Sparano knows that he’s going to need a quarterback to lead his team (the Dolphins) into the future. That’s why he’s going to take Matt Ryan with the first pick,” Kiper said on April 21, 2008.
The Dolphins chose offensive lineman Jake Long, opting to find their quarterback via free agency instead.
Despite this tirade, I have nothing personal against Kiper or the other draft analysts.
The reason it’s not personal is because anybody could do their jobs. My girlfriend could pick the cast of “Medium” to go in the first round, and she would be just as wrong as the highly-paid analysts, who will, in all likelihood, choose actual football players.
What makes the people who do this so special?
I don’t have an answer to that one.
But, just to let you folks at ESPN know, after December, I’ll be in the market.
If you want to pay me to be wrong, too, I’ll be more than happy to oblige.

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