Tennessee is experiencing worsening drought conditions driven largely by seasonal weather patterns, according to the state’s top climate official, though experts say the dry spell is not part of a broader long-term or national drought trend.
Andrew Joyner, Tennessee’s state climatologist and an associate professor, said the current drought is being influenced by La Niña, a climate pattern that typically brings drier weather to much of the Southeastern United States.
“A lot of it is kind of your seasonal pattern, and being in La Niña generally results in a drier southeastern U.S.,” Joyner said. “Tennessee’s normally kind of in the middle, kind of the battleground between those air masses. And so far this season, the drier air mass has kind of won out.”
While drought conditions have intensified in parts of the state, Joyner said the situation does not reflect a larger regional or national trend. Long-term data show Tennessee has actually experienced fewer droughts over the past few decades.
“When we’ve looked at drought over the past 25 or 26 years, we’ve actually had fewer droughts, especially fewer severe and extreme droughts in Northeast Tennessee,” Joyner said. “Overall, the state has gotten a bit wetter.”
However, Tennessee has still seen notable drought events, including a prolonged drought in 2016 that coincided with destructive wildfires near Gatlinburg. More recently, parts of the state have experienced severe and extreme drought conditions during the past several fall seasons.
“These don’t seem to be related to a larger long-term pattern,” Joyner said. “They’re more of a seasonal, typical-type pattern.”
The role of climate change in Tennessee’s drought patterns remains unclear. According to Joyner, there is no strong evidence showing climate change has increased the frequency or intensity of droughts in the state.
“There’s not been a very clear signal with that,” he said. “If anything, we’ve had slightly fewer drought situations.”
Still, Joyner noted that increased climate variability could contribute to more extreme swings between wet and dry periods. That variability can lead to heavy rainfall events followed by extended dry spells, increasing the potential for “flash droughts” that develop rapidly.
How long the current drought will last remains uncertain. Joyner said the La Niña pattern appears to be weakening, with a possible transition to El Niño later this spring or summer.
“It’s hard to say if that would make us drier or wetter,” he said. “Right now, it doesn’t seem like there’s a strong signal in either direction.”
There may be some short-term relief ahead. Joyner said forecasts suggest a more active weather pattern could develop in the coming weeks, potentially bringing increased rainfall to the state.
Even so, Joyner emphasized that drought conditions are often misunderstood by the public. A single heavy rain event does not automatically end a drought, especially when deeper soil moisture remains depleted.
“A lot of people think, ‘Oh, it had a heavy rain of two to three inches — you should go from severe drought to no drought,’ and that’s just not how it works,” he said.
Drought classifications are updated weekly by the National Drought Mitigation Center and typically change gradually, Joyner said. Tennessee officials contribute data and recommendations, but final decisions are made at the national level.
In the Southeast, drought conditions can also intensify quickly during periods of high heat and little rain, sometimes faster than official drought maps can reflect.
To address that challenge, Joyner said Tennessee is working with the Alabama State Climate Office and NASA to develop new tools that better track rapid soil moisture loss and drought expansion.
Joyner also encouraged farmers, agricultural producers and others affected by drought to submit reports through the Condition Monitoring Observer Reporting Tool, which helps officials assess real-world impacts.
“The more impact data we can get from people on the ground, the better decisions we can make,” he said.
To report impact data, visit: https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/tools/conditionmonitoringobservations.aspx.
