Like nearly every human disaster, there are some responsible on all sides of the war in Ukraine. Russia is clearly the aggressor in this situation, yet there are steps the United States and NATO could have taken to potentially avoid this war. Let’s break down the historical faults on each side of this conflict.
After the end of the Second World War, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was created as an alliance opposing the Warsaw Pact led by Russia. The purpose of NATO was to bring western states, such as the United States, the UK, France and Italy, together against the Soviet Union.
At the time, Italy was the easternmost member of the alliance. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, and many questioned the reason for the continued existence of NATO. Russia asked to join NATO at one point but was rebuffed, and since then NATO has continued to expand eastward into former Warsaw Pact states.
This denial of Russian NATO membership, the historical anti-Russian motivation of NATO and the continued expansion into Russia’s geopolitical sphere of influence has made Russia extremely wary of the alliance. When NATO opened the doors to Ukraine joining it was well known that Russia would react badly, and if Ukraine’s invitation into NATO had not been done, there is a much lower likelihood that Russia would have invaded.
In 2014, the United States staged a coup in Ukraine to overthrow the pro-Russian government led by Victor Yanukovych with a pro-western government led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Prior to the coup, Russia had been leasing the port of Mariupol (a major port city for Russian trade and military) from Ukraine, but the newly installed government cancelled the multi-year contract, cutting Russia off from one of their two vital warm-water ports.
While Russian propaganda has blown claims of neo-nazism in Ukraine way out of proportion, there are a minority of legitimate neo-nazis in Ukraine who were used by the U.S. to stage the 2014 coup and still exist politically in Ukraine. If we had not installed an anti-Russian government in Ukraine, they might have stayed on good terms with Moscow, stayed out of NATO and avoided a war.
Despite the faults of the United States, NATO and Ukraine, Russia is still undeniably the most guilty in this invasion. The Russian government is reacting to legitimate threats to their national security, but they are doing so by brutally invading civilian areas, and they have killed hundreds of innocents already. Perhaps they believe that by displaying this show of force they will prevent further NATO expansion or regain political control over the Baltic and Balkan countries. Ukraine is a major producer of agricultural goods, and is often called “the Breadbasket of Europe”; controlling this area would clearly be advantageous. Russia also would benefit greatly by annexing a few major cities which border Crimea.
There is a real danger in oversimplifying complex situations such as this; it’s not as simple as “Russia wants to conquer Ukraine.” Ultimately, policymakers respond to public opinion, and if all of us have an ignorant view of the situation and call for bad decisions like creating a “no-fly zone,” policymakers will listen. By being informed of geopolitics, each of us can respond well to these serious issues.
The real victims in this horrible scenario are the innocent civilians who are being used as pawns by global powers, and they have to bear the very real costs and dangers.
