To start, I want to encourage everyone who hasn’t voted early to go out and vote tomorrow. If there is any duty that every student here should fulfill, it is your duty to vote. I hold to the saying that if you don’t vote, you don’t have a right to complain.
I am confident of a Kerry victory. Why? It is because of Bush’s position in the polls as well as something known as the incumbency rule. In presidential elections with an incumbent, the percentage that the incumbent shows in the polls is the maximum that the incumbent can usually hope to get on Election Day.
This is mainly due to undecided voters, who have historically broken towards the challenger by a factor of six to one. Because of this, incumbents almost always have to poll at 50 percent or more to win.
Bush’s polling average was 47.6 percent in polls released Friday and Saturday. No candidate has ever won the presidency with that percent of the vote without a major third- party candidate in the race.
There are other factors which are bad for Bush. Several of the polls include more Republicans than Democrats. This may not reflect the electorate, since Democrats almost always out-vote Republicans on Election Day. Also, the average is based on the poll’s likely voter numbers.
Bush’s average is even less if you use registered voters. Many polls also seem to consider Republicans more likely to vote than Democrats, which goes against both historical precedent and just plain common sense considering how mobilized Democrats are this year.
Just to pile it on, nearly every poll shows Independents split equally between Bush and Kerry to supporting Kerry by margins of up to 65 percent to Bush’s 35 percent. Also, according to Gallup’s polls since 1952, incumbents average 1.5 percent less on Election Day than in the poll right before Election Day.
So, what’s the point? Unless Bush significantly improves his position between now and Election Day, or the polls are just plain wrong, Bush is in serious danger of being defeated possibly by a margin of up to 7 or 8 percent – if Bush is only able to garner 45 percent of the vote.
Now, I am going to make my predictions. The following states I have listed as battleground states: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. With all other states awarded to each candidate, Kerry would lead with 211 electoral votes to Bush’s 182 electoral Votes out of the 270 electoral votes needed.
I predict Bush will win Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia. I also predict Kerry will in Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This would give Kerry the presidency with 306 electoral votes to Bush’s 232 electoral votes. In the popular vote, I predict Kerry will win 50.5 percent, Bush will win 46.5 percent, and third-party candidates will win 3 percent of the vote.

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