One week to go folks.
In just one week, we’ll know who gets Oscar and who goes home alone this year. So in this, my last Oscar prediction column of 2005, I’m going to take on the big category.
No, I don’t mean sound editing you big dorks, I mean Best Picture.
With five movies that frankly don’t quite measure up to past winners, it’s been said that this year’s race is going to be just that. With no clear-cut winner like last year’s Lord of the Rings, there is a chance for any of the films (or their producers to be more specific) to walk away winners.
So instead of following the format of my previous columns, this time I’m going to just talk about which films I think have the best shot and why – because honestly I’m not all that partial to any one in particular.
I have no favorite in this race, and that sucks because what’s the fun in staying up until midnight to see who wins when you really don’t care?
But anyway, here are my thoughts on the Best Picture nominees of the 77th Academy Awards.
I’ll begin with The Aviator, because, well, it’s the first on the list alphabetically.
OK, to begin with, it’s long. While this isn’t inherently a problem with movies (especially high-budget ones), it is when said movie is about a guy few people find that fascinating.
How many people can actually say they think Howard Hughes is a neat guy?
Dare I say it, not many. Especially if you leave out most of his mental problems like the film did.
So, with two shots against it off the bat, length and subject matter, there’s the fact that it’s another one of those “Leo and Marty” films, which are getting kind of old at this point.
Yes, DiCaprio and Scorsese do make a good working pair, but the movies are always more “bang, whiz” than “I’d like to thank the academy” in my humble opinion.
Gangs of New York was a good film, but it was a popcorn movie to me, not the kind you want to see win the big one. And The Aviator is just more of the same. Probably my third pick out of five based on how I think votes will go.
Next up, Finding Neverland (I’m going to stick with this alphabetical thing, it works).
So we have a film about a guy who wrote one of the most beloved stories known to man after he was inspired by a group of young boys.
Too bad they left out the part where he was messing around with their mother – that might have made the movie not only more interesting but a bit less flat.
Don’t get me wrong – I think in terms of acting, you can’t do much better than pairing Johnny Depp and Kate Winslet. It’s hard to believe they’ve never acted together before.
It’s a pity that they had to be together in such a non-quirky film, because quirky is what they shine in (Depp in anything, Winslet in Eternal Sunshine).
Essentially, I think it’s a lovely film, but I just don’t think it’s going to win. I wouldn’t boo the television if it did, but I just don’t think it will. I give it the No. 4 spot.
And then there were three.
Million Dollar Baby is a film that just came out but is causing an uproar everywhere.
Critics are shouting, fans are talking, activists (I can’t tell you which, that would spoil it) are activating … I mean, well, you know.
It’s the frontrunner in a category lacking real frontrunners. And there’s a reason for it.
With the combined talents of Clint Eastwood, Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman, under Eastwood’s own direction, this story about life and boxing is pulling people’s heartstrings and creating quite a stir.
Eastwood is all but guaranteed the prize for best directing, and in my mind Baby all but has the prize for Best Picture locked up. No. 1 spot, winner takes all.
Now with that pesky winning film out of the way, I’ll talk about the last two films in the running.
Ray is nice, sentimental and heartwarming, but it’s Jamie Foxx’s movie and Jamie Foxx’s ticket to Best Actor. What it isn’t is the best picture of the year. There’s nothing to it that screams Oscar as a whole.
If it wins it will be purely a sentimental win due to Ray Charles’ recent death – much like Charles’ posthumous Grammy last week.
Hollywood likes to celebrate their idols; I just hope in this category it celebrates the ones still living. I give it the No. 5 spot, barring a sweeping need for nostalgia from voters.
Last but certainly not least, the little wine movie that could. Sideways is a film about two men, some women and a whole bunch of fermented grape juice.
Now, I’m not a wine connoisseur or a particular fan of half the cast, so I won’t pretend that this movie drew me in. In fact, my interest in it is the lowest out of the nominees, but in terms of winning, I think it’s got a shot. Not Million Dollar Baby’s shot, but a pretty close second.
With almost nothing but praise from those who have seen it and supporting acting nominations for two of the leads (though the academy shafted Paul Giamatti again), Sideways has a lot of momentum but not a lot of theater play, which is important if you want people to talk about your film.
All in all, it has a chance, but I’m still only giving it No. 2. Close, but no cigar. Or in this case, statuette.
Ah, another round of guestimation is over and I look forward to Sunday so I can see if I was even remotely close in my predictions.
I hope you plan to watch on Feb. 27, and root on your favorites, because I know I’ll be rooting for mine.

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